The thing about Manager of the Season is it’s rarely about who finishes first. Pep Guardiola could win the league by 20 points, having swept all domestic cups, and still not get the nod. Why? Because the award, deep down, is about exceeding expectations. It’s about the guy who squeezed blood from a stone, or at least made a pretty good stone look like a diamond. So, as we look at the 2025-26 Premier League season, the usual suspects will be there, but the real race is for who pulls off the biggest surprise.

The Established Elite and the Newcomer

Let's start with the obvious: Mikel Arteta and Arsenal. The 2024-25 campaign saw them push City closer than ever, ultimately falling short by just two points on the final day, finishing with 87 points. Declan Rice solidified his place as one of the league's top midfielders, anchoring a defense that conceded a league-best 29 goals. The question for 2025-26 isn't just winning, it’s *how* they win. If Arsenal, with their now established core of Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard, and William Saliba, finally lifts the trophy, it’ll be more a coronation than an underdog story. For Arteta to grab Manager of the Season, he'd need to do something truly special, maybe securing 95+ points or navigating a brutal injury crisis with ease. His tactical innovations are less about reinvention now and more about refinement – how to get Saka to consistently deliver 20+ goal contributions, how to integrate a new striker smoothly if Gabriel Jesus continues to struggle with consistency in front of goal. Look, Arsenal has spent big and developed well. They’re *expected* to contend. Manager of the Season usually goes to the guy who wasn’t.

Then there’s Pep. Guardiola's Manchester City, finishing 2024-25 with 89 points and their fourth consecutive title, remains the benchmark. Their tactical fluidity, the way Josko Gvardiol can shift from left-back to a third center-half in possession, the relentless press – it’s all so ingrained. But winning another title, even a fifth straight, probably won't impress the voters enough. Unless, and this is a big unless, City somehow wins it with a completely revamped squad, integrating a half-dozen new starters while Kevin De Bruyne and Rodri finally start showing signs of age. If Phil Foden elevates his game even further, hitting 30 goals in all competitions, that's a player narrative, not necessarily a managerial one for an award that values overachievement. For Pep to win it, he’d need to manage a serious dip in form from a star player or a significant injury crisis and still dominate. Anything less feels like business as usual for the greatest manager of his generation.

The wild card, the genuine fresh face, is Arne Slot at Liverpool. Stepping into Jürgen Klopp’s shoes after the German's emotional departure, Slot has an unenviable task. Klopp’s final season saw Liverpool finish third with 82 points, after a brief title challenge fizzled out in April. Slot's Feyenoord side, known for its aggressive, high-pressing 4-2-3-1 system, mirrors some of Klopp’s philosophy but with a more structured, possession-based build-up. The early signs from Rotterdam suggest a precise coach who demands intensity. The squad he inherits is strong: Mohamed Salah, Darwin Núñez, Alexis Mac Allister. But can he get more out of them? Can he avoid the dreaded "post-Klopp slump"? If Slot guides Liverpool to a title challenge, or even a solid second-place finish, exceeding the 82 points of the previous season and integrating academy talents like Jarell Quansah even further, he'll be a strong contender. A Carabao Cup win won’t cut it, but a sustained league push would be massive. Here's the thing: Liverpool fans are patient, but the Premier League isn’t. If he can navigate the inevitable comparisons and establish his own identity while keeping Liverpool in the top two, he's got a real shot.

The Dark Horse from the North East

My dark horse? Eddie Howe at Newcastle. The 2024-25 season was a rollercoaster for the Magpies, finishing a respectable seventh with 61 points, battling through a significant injury list that saw Sven Botman miss chunks of the season and Callum Wilson in and out of the treatment room. They even managed to reach the FA Cup semi-finals, losing narrowly to Manchester United. Howe’s ability to motivate and develop players like Anthony Gordon, who had a breakout season, is undeniable. But for him to win Manager of the Season, Newcastle needs to break into the top four. That means leapfrogging one of the traditional "big six" and potentially challenging for a Champions League spot.

Here’s my hot take: If Howe takes Newcastle to fourth place, or even fifth, while battling in the Europa League group stages, he deserves it more than anyone. Think about it: they don’t have the financial might of City or the established squad depth of Arsenal or Liverpool. Their transfer strategy, while backed by Saudi wealth, has been more pragmatic, focusing on younger talent with resale value like Alexander Isak. If Howe can get Isak to hit 20 Premier League goals, if Bruno Guimarães continues to dominate midfields, and if they find consistency defensively despite injuries, that would be an immense achievement. He’s already taken them from relegation candidates in 2021-22 to Champions League football in 2023-24. Doing it again, or even improving on their 61 points significantly, would show sustained, elite-level management. His tactical flexibility, often switching between a 4-3-3 and a 4-4-2 depending on the opponent, is underrated. He makes players better, and that’s the hallmark of a Manager of the Season.

So, who wins it? It won't be Pep. It probably won't be Arteta unless Arsenal pulls off something truly historic, like breaking City's points record. Slot has a decent shot if he over-delivers immediately. But my money, my bold prediction, is on Eddie Howe. If Newcastle finishes fourth in 2025-26, snatching a Champions League spot while battling through European commitments, he's the one lifting that trophy.