Every possible outcome — analyzed.
What needs to happen: Win 6 of remaining 9 games. Arsenal drop points against City (GW32) and Spurs (GW35).
Probability: 45% — They have the easier fixture list and home advantage in key games.
Impact: Arne Slot becomes the first manager to win the PL in his first season since Mourinho (2004-05). Salah's farewell season (if he leaves) would be legendary. Liverpool's 20th league title.
What needs to happen: Win the direct clash vs Liverpool (GW30). Maintain their set-piece dominance. Saka stays fit.
Probability: 40% — They've been here before (2022-23, 2023-24) and choked. This is their best chance.
Impact: Arteta vindicated after 5 years of building. Arsenal's first title since 2004 — ending a 22-year drought. The Invincibles generation would celebrate with tears.
What needs to happen: Win all 9 remaining games. Both Liverpool and Arsenal collapse. De Bruyne stays fit.
Probability: 12% — 10 points is a lot, but this is City. They've done it before (2011-12 Aguero moment).
Impact: The greatest comeback in PL history. Guardiola proves he's still the master. Haaland finishes with 35+ goals.
What needs to happen: Liverpool 85pts, Arsenal 85pts, City 85pts. All three drop points against each other.
Probability: 3% — Mathematically possible but incredibly unlikely. Would come down to goal difference.
Impact: The most dramatic title race in Premier League history. Every goal in the final day matters. Neutral fans would love it.